THE 2023 NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:
WHAT IS IN A POLL?
By Otsapa Enyi Samuel
“It is no longer necessary for a political candidate to guess what an audience thinks. He can find out with a nightly tracking poll. So it is no longer likely that political leaders are going to lead. Instead, they’re going to follow”
– Douglas Bailey. 1976 –
Two days ago, ANAP Foundation released the results of it’s September 2022 Polls of the 2023 Nigerian presidential election and the findings have, as expected, generated several reactions from different quarters. In today’s episode of Chad’s Saturday-Saturday tonic, I discuss what election poll means, it’s early history and other related issues, the major finding of the ANAP Foundation polls (conducted by NOI Polls) and then analyzed it’s implications as Nigeria heads towards the 2023 general election, with the presidential as the focus.
For those of us who are Researchers, engaging in surveys is a favorite pastime and we, more than others, understand the ‘undertones’ and ‘overtones’ of election poll which is simply defined as the process of deploying surveys (usually in an election period) so as to feel/gauge the pulse of the voting electorate.
Typically, election polls, which is also known as opinion poll, is carried out to:
(i) Identify the most pressing issues in the polity (LG, state, federal constituency or country as the case may be);
(ii) Gauge public opinion about different candidates vying for political office;
(iii) Predict outcomes of an election; and
(iv) Assist in the design of election campaigns.
And from these, we know that election polls are typically organized/carried out by political parties, candidates in an election and organizations interested in elections. By it’s nature, election polls are synonymous with democratic countries where there exists the freedom of citizens to choose their leaders through periodic (usually four years) credible, free and fair elections. Elections polls is not new in the developed world but in Nigeria and other underdeveloped countries, it is just beginning to become popular, as democracy continues to take root in the country/continent.
The first known election poll to be conducted was in 1824 done by the Telegram Messenger, in the United States. For clarity, we must mention that an election poll is designed to represent the opinions of a population gotten from a questionnaire and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals that typically gives room for a +3% or -3% margin of error. In that 1824 American presidential poll by Telegram Messenger, results showed that Andrew Jackson led John Quincy Adams by 365 votes to 169 and in the actual election, Jackson won and became president of the United States. Since then, different election polls have been done in the year leading to most American elections – with some rightly predicting the winner and others failing. Earlier polls rightly predicted the 1920, 1924, 1928 and 1932 American presidential election but failed in 1950, 1980, 1996, 2000 and 2016 (the one Donald Trump won).
As democracy grows in Nigeria, election polls are beginning to become regular and the first ANAP Foundation poll of the country’s presidential election was conducted in the months leading to the 2011 elections. For it’s September 2022 presidential election poll, the poll sought to gauge who the electorate would vote for, and the results, according to Atedo Peterside, ANAP Founder, showed that Peter Obi of the Labour Party led by 21% while Tinubu and Atiku are both tied in second with 13%. Musa Kwankwanso came a distant fourth with 3%. 32% of respondents, majority of whom are women, are undecided while 15% refused to reveal who they would vote for in 2023.
The results also showed that insecurity, economy, education, unemployment and poverty alleviation are the main concerns of the voting electorate (“voting electorate” because not every adult is a voter). Also, we see that the age bracket of Nigerians that are willing to vote are those 46 years and above – and many of them not on social media.
In closing it’s presentation, ANAP Foundation poll stated that: “in summary, our September 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner as the undecided voters are large enough to turn the tables”.
The implications of the ANAP Foundation poll are many and one of them is that it expresses and reenforces the growing concern that Nigerians are tired of the way their country has been managed – and they are willing to disrupt the status quo. If the results of the poll is anything to go by (I say this because even in the developed countries, polls are sometimes doctored because the organizers know that outcomes of polls have an influence on the voting behavior of voters), Peter Obi would be Nigeria’s next president. But again, the large percentage of undecided voters (32%) and voters unwilling to reveal their choice (15%) together making 47% is a clear indication that it is not Uhuru for any of the three/four leading presidential candidates in the 2023 election.
Also, does the sample size utilized by the poll meet the basic requirements using the Taro Yamane’s formula? Currently, and until INEC adds the over 12 million new voters to it’s register, registered voters in Nigeria are 84 million so we wonder if this was taken into consideration. If this was done, then the result is the sample opinion of only 53% of registered voters in Nigeria since the opinion of 47% (those undecided and who did not want to reveal their choice) was not included. So clearly, the ANAP Foundation poll does not meet the basic requirements for it to be taken seriously. One of the reason for this is that it deployed a wrong sampling technique. I suspect that as opposed to random sampling, it should have used purposive sampling which would have seen at least 90% express their opinion. Did you or anyone you know participate in this poll? I’d bet the answer is no.
Although important, any camp that takes the ANAP Foundation poll results serious or with nonchalance would have itself to blame. If taken serious, one may fail because pride goes before a fall and if treated with nonchalance, one would fail to use it as a launchpad to corner the votes of the 32% undecided voters. But clearly, the eventual winner of Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election would be that candidate who looks at this poll but is not fixated on it – since polls, when they are really empirical and not doctored, serves as only a guide for political parties and candidates to re-strategize or double their efforts. Two things are sure; the 2023 presidential election would be the most keenly contested since 1999 and a vote for Peter Obi would not be a waste.
